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website build using CSS
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title: Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections
description:
keywords:
encoding: UTF-8
language: en-US
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images
| file name | alternative text |
|---|---|
| ajax-loader.gif | loading ... |
| Nanos_Final_2011_National_Results.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Final National 2011 Election Poll Results |
| Nanos_Final_2011_Ontario_Results.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Final Ontario 2011 Federal Election Poll Results |
| Nanos_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Ontario 2011 Federal Trend |
| Ekos_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | Ekos iPolitics.ca Ontario 2011 Federal Trend |
| CES_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | Canadian Election Study |
| Vote_Changes_Pct_Elec_GTA_2011.png | Vote Changes of Four Political Parties and Non-Voters (NV), 2008-2011, as a Percent of Eligible Voters, Selected Regions in the GTA/905 |
| Post_Election_Surveys_2011.png | |
| CES_2011_Immigrant_Vote_Gap.png | The Immigrant Vote Gap: Canadian Election Study, Preliminary Data from 2011 Election, as reported in Policy Options, June 2011 |
| Ipsos_Reid_Exit_Poll_Religion_Immigrant.png | Cumulative Contributions Received, per Interim & Final Reports 2006 Liberal Leadership Major Contestants |
| Lib_2006_Ldrshp_Fundraising_Major.png | Cumulative Contributions Received, per Interim & Final Reports 2006 Liberal Leadership Minor Contestants |
| Lib_2006_Ldrshp_Fundraising_Minor.png | Jack Layton |
| Layton_Record_NDP_Leader.png | NDP Leader Jack Layton campaigning in Courtenay, BC, April, 2011 |
| Layton_in_Courtenay_BC_2011_GE.jpg | Contributions (donors over $200 only) by week, by party, 2010 annual returns |
| contribs_by_wk_2010_annual_.jpg | Fundraising by Week, 2011 Q1-2, Donors over $200 only |
| fundraising_by_week_2011_Q1-2.jpg | Beau |
| finq_all_e.png | |
| finq_party11_e.png | |
| finq_party4_e.png | |
| finq_party3_e.png | |
| beaus.gif |
headers
H1
Pundits' Guide
H2
to Canadian Federal Elections
Browse
Pollsters Divided on Final Shifts in Ontario During Last May’s Election
Pundits’ Guide to the NDP Leadership Contest
UPDATED: Who Really Won the “Ethnic” Vote in the May Election?
One Candidate Stands Out in post-2006 Liberal Leadership Fundraising
Leadership Rules Need Changing
Oh Jack. What now?
The Hidden Life of Parties: a $600 polling budget, Son of CIMS?, and PTA finances revealed
2011 Election Saw Record Fundraising Activity
Bloc Quebecois Leadership Campaign to Launch Amid Tensions at Party HQ
Elizabeth May’s Big Green Gamble Pays Off
Previous Posts
Archives
H3
to Canadian Federal Elections
Browse
Pollsters Divided on Final Shifts in Ontario During Last May’s Election
Pundits’ Guide to the NDP Leadership Contest
UPDATED: Who Really Won the “Ethnic” Vote in the May Election?
One Candidate Stands Out in post-2006 Liberal Leadership Fundraising
Leadership Rules Need Changing
Oh Jack. What now?
The Hidden Life of Parties: a $600 polling budget, Son of CIMS?, and PTA finances revealed
2011 Election Saw Record Fundraising Activity
Bloc Quebecois Leadership Campaign to Launch Amid Tensions at Party HQ
Elizabeth May’s Big Green Gamble Pays Off
Previous Posts
Archives
H4
The case *for* the "Late Shifting Blue Liberals" hypothesis
The case against it
So, what do I think happened?
Selected Metrics, 2006 Liberal Leadership Contest
Jack Layton's Federal Electoral History
Selected Financial Metrics, by Party, 2010 Fiscal Year
H5
H6
internal links
| address | anchor text |
|---|---|
| http://www.punditsguide.ca// | Pundits' Guide |
| / | Home |
| /punditmetrics/ | Pundit Metrics |
| /punditqueries/ | Search the Database |
| /faq/ | FAQ |
| /links/ | Links |
| /about/ | About |
| /contact/ | Contact |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/census/ | Census |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/elections/ | Elections |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/ | Finances |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/ | Parties |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/regions/ | Regions |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/punditqueries/ | Search … |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?elec_event=22&pane=1 | Click here |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=3&elec_event=26&pane=1 | Lib |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=4&elec_event=26&pane=1 | NDP |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=13&elec_event=26&pane=1 | Grn |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=1&elec_event=26&pane=1 | BQ |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=11&elec_event=26&pane=1 | Cons |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=5&elec_event=26&pane=1 | PC |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=10&elec_event=26&pane=1 | Ind |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties/?party=0&elec_event=26&pane=1 | Oth |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pollsters-divided-on-final-shifts-in-ontario-during-last-mays-election/ | Pollsters Divided on Final Shifts in Ontario During Last May’s Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pollsters-divided-on-final-shifts-in-ontario-during-last-mays-election/#comments | 30 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%e2%80%9cethnic%e2%80%9d-vote-in-the-may-election/ | Who Really Won the 'Ethnic' Vote in the May Election? |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%e2%80%9cethnic%e2%80%9d-vote-in-the-may-election/ | here |
| /?p=3261 | Ipsos-Reid president |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Nanos_Final_2011_National_Results.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Final National 2011 Election Poll Results |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Nanos_Final_2011_Ontario_Results.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Final Ontario 2011 Federal Election Poll Results |
| /?p=3261 | the position he had taken at lunch |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Nanos_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | CTV/Globe/Nanos Ontario 2011 Federal Trend |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Ekos_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | Ekos iPolitics.ca Ontario 2011 Federal Trend |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/CES_2011_Ontario_Federal_Trend.png | Canadian Election Study |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=1054 | Ajax-Pickering |
| /?p=2928 | Earlier work I did |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Vote_Changes_Pct_Elec_GTA_2011.png | Vote Changes of Four Political Parties and Non-Voters (NV), 2008-2011, as a Percent of Eligible Voters, Selected Regions in the GTA/905 |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/41st-2011-general-election/ | 41st (2011) General Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/canadian-election-study/ | Canadian Election Study |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/exit-polls/ | Exit Polls |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pundits-guide-to-the-ndp-leadership-contest/ | Pundits’ Guide to the NDP Leadership Contest |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pundits-guide-to-the-ndp-leadership-contest/#comments | 4 Comments |
| http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca | Pundits' Guide to the NDP Federal Leadership Race |
| http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca | http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/leadership-contests/ | Leadership Contests |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/ndp-2012-leadership-contest/ | NDP 2012 Leadership Contest |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%e2%80%9cethnic%e2%80%9d-vote-in-the-may-election/ | UPDATED: Who Really Won the “Ethnic” Vote in the May Election? |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%e2%80%9cethnic%e2%80%9d-vote-in-the-may-election/#comments | 16 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/files/Post_Election_Surveys_2011.pdf | img |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/CES_2011_Immigrant_Vote_Gap.png | The Immigrant Vote Gap: Canadian Election Study, Preliminary Data from 2011 Election, as reported in Policy Options, June 2011 |
| /?p=177 | earlier CES studies showed |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Ipsos_Reid_Exit_Poll_Religion_Immigrant.png | img |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/41st-2011-general-election/ | 41st (2011) General Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/canadian-election-study/ | Canadian Election Study |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/ethnic-communities/ | Ethnic Communities |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/exit-polls/ | Exit Polls |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/one-candidate-stands-out-in-post-2006-liberal-leadership-fundraising/ | One Candidate Stands Out in post-2006 Liberal Leadership Fundraising |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/one-candidate-stands-out-in-post-2006-liberal-leadership-fundraising/#comments | 7 Comments |
| /?p=3376 | last post |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Lib_2006_Ldrshp_Fundraising_Major.png | Cumulative Contributions Received, per Interim & Final Reports 2006 Liberal Leadership Major Contestants |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Lib_2006_Ldrshp_Fundraising_Minor.png | Cumulative Contributions Received, per Interim & Final Reports 2006 Liberal Leadership Minor Contestants |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/leadership-contests/ | Leadership Contests |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/liberals/ | Liberals |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/party-finance/ | Party Finance |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/leadership-rules-need-changing/ | Leadership Rules Need Changing |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/leadership-rules-need-changing/#comments | 33 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2010/02/latest-on-2006-liberal-leadership-debts.php | our last check-in |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/elections-act/ | Elections Act |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/leadership-contests/ | Leadership Contests |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/party-finance/ | Party Finance |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/oh-jack-what-now/ | Oh Jack. What now? |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/oh-jack-what-now/#comments | 18 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=115 | Toronto – Danforth |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1147 | Toronto – Danforth |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1147 | Toronto – Danforth |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1147 | Toronto – Danforth |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1147 | Toronto – Danforth |
| Layton_Record_NDP_Leader.png | Jack Layton |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Layton_in_Courtenay_BC_2011_GE.jpg | NDP Leader Jack Layton campaigning in Courtenay, BC, April, 2011 |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/jack-layton/ | Jack Layton |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/leadership-contests/ | Leadership Contests |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/ndp/ | NDP |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/the-hidden-life-of-parties-a-600-polling-budget-son-of-cims-and-pta-finances-revealed/ | The Hidden Life of Parties: a $600 polling budget, Son of CIMS?, and PTA finances revealed |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/the-hidden-life-of-parties-a-600-polling-budget-son-of-cims-and-pta-finances-revealed/#comments | 5 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/contribs_by_wk_2010_annual_.jpg | Contributions (donors over $200 only) by week, by party, 2010 annual returns |
| /?p=3329 | since then |
| /?p=1669 | one large bequest |
| /?p=974 | 2009 version |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/party-finance/ | Party Finance |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/2011-election-saw-record-fundraising-activity/ | 2011 Election Saw Record Fundraising Activity |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/2011-election-saw-record-fundraising-activity/#comments | 16 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/fundraising_by_week_2011_Q1-2.jpg | Fundraising by Week, 2011 Q1-2, Donors over $200 only |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/?pane=1 | overall second-quarter |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/?party=11&pane=1 | the Conservative Party |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/?party=4&pane=1 | the NDP |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/?party=3&pane=1 | The Liberals |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/41st-2011-general-election/ | 41st (2011) General Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/party-finance/ | Party Finance |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/07/bloc-quebecois-leadership-campaign-to-launch-amid-tensions-at-party-hq/ | Bloc Quebecois Leadership Campaign to Launch Amid Tensions at Party HQ |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/07/bloc-quebecois-leadership-campaign-to-launch-amid-tensions-at-party-hq/#comments | 38 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1019 | Haute Gasp |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/06/elizabeth-mays-big-green-gamble-pays-off/ | Elizabeth May’s Big Green Gamble Pays Off |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/06/elizabeth-mays-big-green-gamble-pays-off/#comments | 22 Comments |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=1239 | Saanich-Gulf Islands |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1223 | Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1096 | London North Centre |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1079 | Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1080 | Guelph |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=959 | Central Nova |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1254 | Yukon |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1071 | Dufferin-Caledon |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding?riding=1244 | Vancouver Centre |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/41st-2011-general-election/ | 41st (2011) General Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/greens/ | Greens |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/party-finance/ | Party Finance |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/tag/riding-associations/ | Riding Associations |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/page/2/ | ← Previous Entries |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pollsters-divided-on-final-shifts-in-ontario-during-last-mays-election/ | Pollsters Divided on Final Shifts in Ontario During Last May’s Election |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/pundits-guide-to-the-ndp-leadership-contest/ | Pundits’ Guide to the NDP Leadership Contest |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/who-really-won-the-%e2%80%9cethnic%e2%80%9d-vote-in-the-may-election/ | UPDATED: Who Really Won the “Ethnic” Vote in the May Election? |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/09/one-candidate-stands-out-in-post-2006-liberal-leadership-fundraising/ | One Candidate Stands Out in post-2006 Liberal Leadership Fundraising |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/leadership-rules-need-changing/ | Leadership Rules Need Changing |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/oh-jack-what-now/ | Oh Jack. What now? |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/the-hidden-life-of-parties-a-600-polling-budget-son-of-cims-and-pta-finances-revealed/ | The Hidden Life of Parties: a $600 polling budget, Son of CIMS?, and PTA finances revealed |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/08/2011-election-saw-record-fundraising-activity/ | 2011 Election Saw Record Fundraising Activity |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/07/bloc-quebecois-leadership-campaign-to-launch-amid-tensions-at-party-hq/ | Bloc Quebecois Leadership Campaign to Launch Amid Tensions at Party HQ |
| http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/06/elizabeth-mays-big-green-gamble-pays-off/ | Elizabeth May’s Big Green Gamble Pays Off |
external links
| address | anchor text |
|---|---|
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newsatch |
| http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/09/14/draft-darrell-bricker-an-open-letter-to-ontario%E2%80%99s-journalists/ | major |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/press_release_september_16_2011.pdf | pollsters |
| http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1055410--pollsters-take-aim-at-the-media | openly |
| http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadian-pollsters-row-shows-there-is-no-safety-in-numbers/article2168246/ | feuding |
| http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/index.cfm?page_id=3&action=blog&subaction=viewpost&blog_id=323&post_id=18031&CFID=2558664&CFTOKEN=76804467 | methodology issues |
| http://www.mria-arim.ca/NEWS/Polling091611.asp | stepping in to smooth things over |
| http://www.mria-arim.ca/OTTAWA/Programs.asp | polling industry association panel on the federal election |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/nanos.pdf | reported that |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/watt.pdf | analysis |
| http://ensightcanada.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ENS.06_PostElect2011ReportWeb_F.pdf | post-election focus groups |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/ekos_vs_actual_results.pdf | his initial post-mortem |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf | after further research he concluded |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/soroka.pdf | found that |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/nanos.pdf | as follows |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/macdonald2.pdf | interpreted |
| http://ensightcanada.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ENS.06_PostElect2011ReportWeb_F.pdf | reported |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/watt.pdf | his piece |
| http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1055410--pollsters-take-aim-at-the-media | last week |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/soroka.pdf | found that |
| http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics---2011-Post-Election-Survey---Summary-Report---June-3-2011.pdf | Environics post-election survey |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/ekos_vs_actual_results.pdf | Brief Port Mortem |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf | further research |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/macdonald2.pdf | L. Ian MacDonald's |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/sears.pdf | Robin Sears |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/espey.pdf | argued in |
| http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/final_seat_projection_may_1.pdf | final EKOS results |
| http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/05/08/the-orange-wave-rises/ | Chapter 5 |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/sears.pdf | noted here |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/soroka.pdf | Policy Options |
| http://www.vancouversun.com/life/religion%20split%20federal%20vote%20poll/4748583/story.html | Vancouver Sun |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://afewtastefulsnaps.net/?p=1136 | here |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/fel/cea&document=part18_div02&lang=e#sec405 | 405 |
| http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/fel/cea&document=part18_div02&lang=e#sec4051 | s.405.1 |
| http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/fel/cea&document=part18_div02&lang=e#4043 | s.404.3(1) |
| http://afewtastefulsnaps.net/?p=1107 | noted the other day |
| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election,_2006 | 238 delegates |
| http://www.ndp.ca/letter-to-canadians-from-jack-layton | Letter to Canadians |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2011/05/20110520-135319.html | 2012 |
| http://www.courrierdusaguenay.com/Actualites/Politique/2011-06-28/article-2605429/Pierre-Forest-veut-reporter-la-course-a-la-chefferie/1 | not everyone |
| http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2011/05/20110509-163731.html | in the job |
| http://www.facebook.com/pages/Pierre-Paquette-%C3%A0-la-chefferie-du-Bloc-Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois/209318919088341 | Facebook page |
| http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201107/12/01-4417337-bloc-quebecois-les-survivants-se-dechirent.php | wave of hiring |
| http://lejournaldemontreal.canoe.ca/actualites/national/politiquefederale/archives/2011/06/20110622-194943.html | had demurred |
| http://www.nationalnewswatch.com | National Newswatch |
| http://www.elections.ca/scripts/webpep/fin2/select_search_option.aspx?entity=5&lang=e&filter=+18470&option=0&ids=&id=&part=&page=1&sort=0&return=1&PrevReturn=0&style=0&table=&searchentity=0&contribname=&contribclass=&contribprov=0&contribrange=0&contribed=0&contribpp=&contribfiscalfrom=0&contribfiscalto=0&EVENTARGUMENT=&period=-1 | recently-released financial returns |
| http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwUvFSS25jo | appeared |
| http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR85iMA_61c | this one |
| http://www.beaus.ca | Beau |
| http://esi.ctv.ca/datafeed/urlgen2.aspx?vid=112864 | Regional Contact |
| http://WordPress.org/ | WordPress |
| http://wpml.org | WPML |