www.pensionpulse.blogspot.com - pensionpulse

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IP: 209.85.175.132

continent: NA, country: United States (USA), city: Mountain View

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Basic information

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code weight: 505.92 KB

text per all code ratio: 37 %

title: Pension Pulse

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encoding: UTF-8

language: en

Website code analysis

one word phrases repeated minimum three times

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he	18
one	18
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In	17
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these	17
them	17
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you	17
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GASB	17
Greek	16
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financial	16
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EU	15
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This	13
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Occupy	12
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That	7
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For	7
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Jim	5
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Oct.	5
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Credit	5
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2009,	4
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I've	4
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Form	4
Wednesday,	4
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At	4
Even	4
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typically	4
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highly	4
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Capital	4
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9%	4
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am	4
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right	4
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insider	4
naked	4
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warned	4
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Bloomberg	4
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Some	3
sovereign	3
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State,	3
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Bureau	3
elite	3
either	3
Member	3
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3%	3
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"The	3
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17	3
All	3
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protestors	3
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austerity	3
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Suisse	3
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made	3
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III	3
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course	3
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Currently,	3
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ever	3
place	3
research	3
Standards	3
Specifically,	3
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National	3
Accounting	3
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employee	3
might	3
adding	3
contributions,	3
discussing	3
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cash	3
increase	3
director	3
CEO	3
Chairman	3
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version	3
Under	3
July,	3
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Friday,	3
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Fund	3
What	3
Hedge	3
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It's	3
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Management	3
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taking	3
system	3
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well	3
contributions	3
PF	3
act	3
meeting	3
Managed	3
2008,	3
Ireland	3
following	3
debt.	3
plans,	3
2009.	3
burden	3
rising	3
toward	3
part	3
business	3
risk-free	3
rating	3
accept	3
President	3
increased	3
again	3
Park	3
banking	3
write	3
Zuccotti	3
reach	3
specific	3
case	3
important	3
PSI	3
mine	3
opportunity	3
And	3
friend	3
Volcker	3
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systems	3
liable	3
planned	3
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largely	3
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except	3
Census	3
tell	3
Meanwhile,	3
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earlier	3
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implementation	3
billion.	3
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companies	3
effectively	3
99	3
event	3
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support	3
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United	3
law,	3
three	3
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among	3
fiscal	3
forward	3
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Greece.	3
agencies	3
workers	3
often	3
alternative	3
fed	3
unrest	3
One	3
board’s	3
bigger	3

two word phrases repeated minimum three times

Phrase	Quantity
of the	72
in the	61
for the	30
and the	22
to the	22
on the	20
with the	15
that the	15
the SEC	13
would be	13
the European	13
at the	13
it is	12
to be	11
pension plans	11
Occupy Wall	10
by the	10
have to	10
from the	10
should be	10
has been	9
to this	9
would have	9
over the	9
will be	9
Wall Street	9
hedge funds	9
and local	9
Email ThisBlogThis!Share	8
post Email	8
this post	8
there are	8
public pension	8
to Facebook	8
is not	8
state and	8
Links to	8
have been	8
it would	8
ThisBlogThis!Share to	8
TwitterShare to	8
up with	8
to TwitterShare	8
Posted by	8
Kolivakis at	8
AM Links	8
by Leo	8
Leo Kolivakis	8
out of	7
all the	7
end of	7
the current	7
the EFSF	7
need to	7
more than	7
the ECB	7
the new	7
are not	7
the Greek	6
that would	6
to make	6
after the	6
the end	6
the nation's	6
is the	6
the past	6
said the	6
the proposed	6
you with	5
this is	5
new accounting	5
the U.S.	5
that Greece	5
not be	5
on their	5
hedge fund	5
can be	5
it will	5
This is	5
S&P 500	5
pension funds	5
leave you	5
equity risk	5
which is	5
use of	5
the deal	5
these new	5
as the	5
rate of	5
billion in	5
the financial	5
proposal would	5
Schapiro said	5
do not	5
funds and	5
debt crisis	5
in this	5
able to	5
and other	5
the proposal	5
come up	4
pension liabilities	4
Europe is	4
losses on	4
seem to	4
the S&P	4
in 2009,	4
the top	4
the pension	4
proposed changes	4
be able	4
banks to	4
there is	4
as it	4
they are	4
European leaders	4
the person	4
they will	4
percent of	4
trillion in	4
the EU	4
said that	4
quarter of	4
the average	4
but it	4
we can	4
based on	4
close to	4
is what	4
European banks	4
that is	4
rather than	4
risk premium	4
not just	4
for pension	4
to help	4
the two	4
discount rate	4
the country	4
Street is	4
but this	4
familiar with	4
to do	4
for Greece	4
EU debt	4
the GASB	4
some of	4
tend to	4
no longer	4
risk of	4
reports that	4
is going	4
is that	4
the 21st	4
implied ERP	4
to use	3
friend of	3
director of	3
Rocky III	3
they have	3
deal with	3
funds to	3
in their	3
of mine	3
three months	3
in recent	3
and not	3
in its	3
said in	3
couple of	3
banks are	3
with all	3
to its	3
could have	3
one for	3
the last	3
that has	3
time is	3
their balance	3
ability to	3
the eurozone	3
the opposite	3
the board’s	3
on an	3
be in	3
on EU	3
engaging in	3
will have	3
credit event.	3
debt crisis,	3
EU leaders	3
United States	3
with their	3
Clubber Lang,	3
plans in	3
10-year Treasury	3
to take	3
running out	3
the GFOA	3
funds are	3
net pension	3
and paid	3
such as	3
instead of	3
That is	3
that they	3
pension benefits	3
one of	3
at all	3
agree with	3
private equity	3
not to	3
the most	3
is running	3
to deal	3
debt crisis.	3
to reach	3
risk-free rate	3
Accounting Standards	3
needs to	3
in 2009.	3
version of	3
European Union	3
There is	3
should not	3
ban on	3
(click on	3
and there	3
solution to	3
the best	3
France and	3
this insurance	3
part of	3
of an	3
does not	3
and think	3
people are	3
be liable	3
the global	3
Europe and	3
in 2008,	3
are currently	3
will need	3
than the	3
European debt	3
the data	3
the funding	3
are fed	3
Trina Solar	3
the same	3
Greece is	3
the time	3
the Volcker	3
of this	3
fed up	3
when they	3
paid for	3
the implied	3
risk assets	3
to work	3
say that	3
the National	3
Zuccotti Park	3
is trying	3
the 10-year	3
for his	3
trying to	3
the market	3
them to	3
its own	3
of that	3
use the	3
the groups	3
as in	3
where the	3
including the	3
quarterly filings	3
pensions are	3
lead to	3
series is	3
is no	3
according to	3
retirement systems	3
to go	3
in my	3
on Greece's	3
the final	3
set to	3
annual required	3
The SEC	3
SEC is	3
is set	3
Credit Suisse	3
would lead	3
Greece would	3
the debt	3
what is	3
Form PF	3
and private	3
the Form	3
to say	3
the bonds	3
states and	3
with its	3

three word phrases repeated minimum three times

Phrase	Quantity
by Leo Kolivakis	8
Leo Kolivakis at	8
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to	8
ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare	8
AM Links to	8
TwitterShare to Facebook	8
to TwitterShare to	8
state and local	8
Posted by Leo	8
to this post	8
post Email ThisBlogThis!Share	8
this post Email	8
Links to this	8
Occupy Wall Street	7
would have to	6
the end of	6
public pension plans	5
leave you with	5
over the past	4
come up with	4
familiar with the	4
the European banks	4
be able to	4
Wall Street is	3
seem to be	3
that has been	3
friend of mine	3
but it is	3
to deal with	3
would lead to	3
should not be	3
equity risk premium	3
Europe and the	3
some of the	3
said the SEC	3
the European Union	3
will need to	3
is set to	3
of the nation's	3
the S&P 500	3
it is not	3
on the 21st	3
version of the	3
on their balance	3
are fed up	3
is running out	3
at the end	3
end of the	3
one of the	3
and there are	3
the Form PF	3

B tags

U tags

The ECB Bazooka Option

Greece and Restructuring the Restructuring

avoiding a credit event (proper default)

after

Altering the coupon. By reducing the average coupon by 1% we can go to 31% (in option 1)If we reduce the capital guarantee to 80% instead of 100% to all options we gain another 5%.Extending the maturity to 40Y could possibly bring some more, depending on the coupon.One could assume 10% yield (say) instead of 9% yield. That would add another 3% of haircut. In other words, without triggering too much objection from the bond holders we could have voluntary haircut of around 36%. Anything more than that would risk the participation in the PSI,which currently stands close to 90% (according to press reports).Any talk of 50% or more then carries the big risk of a coercive offer, namely a default that Europe is trying to avoid all this time.

They can allocate more money in buying back some of the bonds now trading close to 50% (or less).They could extend the eligible bonds to 2030. Currently, only bonds maturing up to and including 2020 are eligible.They may also find a way to include the ECB holdings (around 45bil), which are currently immune from the restructuring.A more detailed Marshall plan could be structured Even after the PSI exchange, Greece would be liable to pay for the interest in the new bonds. According to our calculations this is around 6bil (assuming original PSI deal), which presupposes a 3% primary surplus for Greece. As this is hard to achieve in the current recessionary environment then further bailout funds or grace period may be negotiated given that Greece comes clean in their commitments.The nightmare scenario for Europe is the proper credit event. Let me explain why I call it a nightmare:Banks including the ECB would have to write down their losses immediately. No longer the option to have them in the banking book marked to fiction. Some banks have taken that road already but many have not.ECB would not only write losses on their 45bil portfolio but would no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral. They could alter that internal rule but it is highly unlikely, as it would damage the reputation of the ECB even further.European banks (non Greek) would have to replace this with other acceptable collateral. Given the recent funding stress, it would only add to the problem.Greek banks would need to find alternative sources of funding or go bust causing further social unrest in Greece. One possibility is for the Bank of Greece to use the full ELA tool with the approval of the ECB. However, even in this case, the run on deposits may stress the physical currency reserves (need to issue paper money to satisfy withdrawals). Accessing the ELA that is a liability of the state (in default in this case) may cause some philosophical concern. As there are no Collective Action Clauses (CAC’s) in the bonds under Greek law, it may take 6months or more to reach an agreement that satisfies the creditors. All this time Greece would need to finance pensions and salaries. The risk of other countries, in particular Ireland asking for a proper haircut is great.Peripheral debt would suffer. This would probably force more losses on the European banks who hold Peripheral debt. EU must have a recapitalisation plan in place and not expect the market to come up with the equity. If Europe decides a Credit event, then the Greeks might feel emancipated to deal with their debt themselves, rather than leaving it to Europeans. For example, they could pass a law transforming all GGB’s into 40Y zero coupons. Bondholders would then need to go to Greek courts to argue their case. This is not something that they would want to do. As Greece does not deny payment but only moves the repayment date it is not an appropriation of funds. CDS contracts would have to be paid out. Although the net volume is small we do not know were the losses would hit adding to the unpredictability factor. Thus unless the European leaders have concrete answers to the above risks, a credit event seems highly improbable. In conclusion, we believe that the deal struck on the 21st July would be altered but not as some suggest drastically.Recapitalization of European Banks

EFSF Leverage

One of the fundamental principles of insurance is diversification of risk. You simply do not insure all the flats in the same building against fire risk. In the case of Europe, Italy and Spain represent a huge chunk of EU debt (more than 2.5trillion).The EFSF insurance is like a father selling protection against death for his own his family including himself. There is very high correlation as 130billion out of the 440billion in the EFSF come from Italy and Spain (Greece, Portugal and Ireland account for 30billion). This effectively means that Germany and France would foot again the bill. This may cause further downgrades from the rating agencies.The PSI idea was to share the burden with the private sector. The current insurance scheme moves this back to the official sector. Article 125 (ex Article 103 TEC) 1.The Union shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. For the past 2 years, the EU is trying hard to avoid default and credit event. They did not allow Irish banks to default neither Greece to haircut their debt back in may 2010. Now they would be insuring bonds against default that they vowed to prevent? This 20% insurance would be given to all regardless their solvency position? That is certainly not a prudent insurance policy from the point of view of the insurer Markets may take the opposite view and start their pricing with a 20% portion as a AAA and the rest much lower. This would force the bonds of unsuspecting countries much lower than they are trading now Under which credit events, would the 20% be triggered? Lets assume that “Failure to pay” is acceptable, would restructuring be an event that would trigger the insurance? Given that Greece is restructuring “voluntarily” would it be insured? Some say that this insurance policy may contravene article 125 of the TFEU (see box) At the moment we have no details of how this insurance can be implemented, however, my guess is that it is not something that can be implemented efficiently and fast enough to address the current crisis.ESM brought forward

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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/06/should-pensions-be-in-seeding-game.html	pensions should be in the seeding game
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009/03/hooppla-beauty-of-bonds.html	escaping the savage losses
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/will-new-regulations-sink-pensions.html	9:05 AM
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/storming-pension-castle.html	Storming the Pension Castle?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupy-pensions.html	Occupy Pensions
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/great-retirement-heist.html	great retirement heist
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/storming-pension-castle.html	7:46 AM
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupy-pensions.html	Occupy Pensions?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/05/greek-crisis-going-global.html	Greek crisis is going global
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/great-retirement-heist.html	pensions have been looted
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupy-pensions.html	9:21 AM
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/prediction-pain.html	Prediction? Pain!
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/pensions-paying-premium-for-pipe-deals.html	Pensions Paying Premium For PIPE Deals?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009/04/psps-cfo-on-hot-seat.html	which politician I'd like to bring with me
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/sec-clamping-down-on-large-hedge-funds.html	SEC Clamping Down on Large Hedge Funds?
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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/storming-pension-castle.html	Storming the Pension Castle?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupy-pensions.html	Occupy Pensions?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/726b-drop-in-public-pension-assets-in_14.html	$726B Drop in Public Pension Assets in 2009
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/prediction-pain.html	Prediction? Pain!
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/pensions-paying-premium-for-pipe-deals.html	Pensions Paying Premium For PIPE Deals?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/first-and-goal-for-risk.html	First and Goal For Risk?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/pensions-wrestle-with-return-rates.html	Pensions Wrestle With Return Rates?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/refections-from-greek-gods.html	Reflections From Greek Gods?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/stay-hungry-stay-foolish.html	Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/shrewd-hedge-funds-profit-in-september.html	Shrewd Hedge Funds Profit in September?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/caisse-not-immune-to-market-turbulence.html	Caisse Not Immune to Market Turbulence?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/is-pension-ignorance-bliss.html	Is Pension Ignorance Bliss?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/world-fearing-greek-style-implosion.html	World Fearing a Greek-Style Implosion?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/holding-on-by-thread.html	Holding On By a Thread?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/beyond-global-financial-tsunami.html	Beyond the Global Financial Tsunami?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_09_01_archive.html	September
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/pensions-raising-cash-trimming-pe-gps.html	Pensions Raising Cash, Trimming GPs in PE?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/off-to-races-once-again.html	Off to the Races Once Again?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/calpers-seeding-canadian-hedge-funds.html	CalPERS Seeding Canadian Hedge Funds?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/great-retirement-heist.html	The Great Retirement Heist?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/post-paradise-stress-disorder.html	Post Paradise Stress Disorder?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/moment-of-truth.html	Moment of Truth?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/fiddling-while-rome-burns.html	Fiddling While Rome Burns?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/greek-twist-of-global-deflation.html	A Greek 'Twist' of Global Deflation?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/troika-flirting-with-disaster.html	Troika Flirting With Disaster?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/rescuing-titanic.html	Rescuing the Titanic?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/beyond-european-debt-crisis.html	Beyond the European Debt Crisis?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/eleusis-lives-eternally.html	Eleusis Lives Eternally?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/time-for-greece-to-play-hardballl.html	Time for Greece to Play Hardball?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/big-fat-greek-divorce.html	A Big Fat Greek Divorce?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/final-chapter-of-this-greek-tragedy.html	The Final Chapter of This Greek Tragedy?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/will-greek-default-bring-down-eurozone.html	Will a Greek Default Bring Down the Eurozone?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/underfunded-pensions-making-riskier.html	Underfunded Pensions Making Riskier Bets?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/is-gm-really-de-risking-pensions.html	Is GM Really De-Risking Pensions?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/global-pensions-facing-new-crisis.html	Global Pensions Facing New Crisis?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/journey-to-paradise.html	Journey to Paradise?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/wither-american-working-man.html	Wither American Working Man?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/dow-13600-here-we-come.html	Dow 13,600, Here We Come?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/us-military-pensions-in-doubt.html	US Military Pensions In Doubt?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html	August
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/did-bonds-just-peak.html	Did Bonds Just Peak?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/aaa-pensions-turnng-to-alternatives.html	AAA: Pensions Turning to Alternatives
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/hedge-funds-surviving-hft-hurricanes.html	Hedge Funds Surviving the HFT Hurricanes?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/honoring-grandpa-jack.html	Honoring "Grandpa Jack"
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/passing-baton.html	Passing The Baton?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/aimco-vs-cppib-diverging-views-on-pe.html	AIMCo vs. CPPIB: Diverging Views on PE?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/is-bank-of-america-rotted-to-core.html	Is Bank of America "Rotted to the Core"?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/will-baby-boomers-sink-stock-market.html	Will Baby Boomers Sink the Stock Market?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_07_01_archive.html	July
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html	June
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_05_01_archive.html	May
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_04_01_archive.html	April
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_03_01_archive.html	March
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_02_01_archive.html	February
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011_01_01_archive.html	January
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&updated-max=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=50	2010
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_12_01_archive.html	December
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_11_01_archive.html	November
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_10_01_archive.html	October
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_09_01_archive.html	September
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html	August
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_07_01_archive.html	July
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_06_01_archive.html	June
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_05_01_archive.html	May
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_04_01_archive.html	April
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_03_01_archive.html	March
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_02_01_archive.html	February
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html	January
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2009-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&updated-max=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=50	2009
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_12_01_archive.html	December
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html	November
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_10_01_archive.html	October
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_09_01_archive.html	September
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_08_01_archive.html	August
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html	July
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_06_01_archive.html	June
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_05_01_archive.html	May
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_04_01_archive.html	April
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_03_01_archive.html	March
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html	February
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009_01_01_archive.html	January
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2008-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&updated-max=2009-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=50	2008
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_12_01_archive.html	December
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_11_01_archive.html	November
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_10_01_archive.html	October
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_09_01_archive.html	September
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_08_01_archive.html	August
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_07_01_archive.html	July
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2008_06_01_archive.html	June
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/great-retirement-heist.html	The Great Retirement Heist?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/01/florida-pension-fund-broke.html	Florida Pension Fund Broke?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/10/got-milk.html	Got Milk?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/09/post-paradise-stress-disorder.html	Post Paradise Stress Disorder?
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/10/holding-on-by-thread.html	Holding On By a Thread?

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