domstat.net

Website loading time

during the test: 0.39 s

cable connection (average): 0.81 s

DSL connection (average): 1.22 s

modem (average): 23.26 s

HTTP headers

HTTP/1.1 200 OK

Server: nginx/0.7.65

Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2011 08:25:55 GMT

Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8

Connection: close

Status: 200 OK

X-RateLimit-Limit: 10000

ETag: "af1c3a4a04694a87af5261d5705d3284"

X-PosterousHostName: app15.posterous.com

X-RateLimit-Remaining: 10000

X-Runtime: 6515

X-GitSHA: e150462d5acc4740b298a60b4f7d5a860e2cfa9f

Cache-Control: private, max-age=0, must-revalidate

Pragma: no-cache

Content-Length: 163934

X-Varnish: 273523262 271898988

Age: 20224

Via: 1.1 varnish

X-Cache: HIT

Information about DNS servers

Received from the first DNS server

Received from the second DNS server

Subdomains (the first 50)

Typos (misspells)

Location

IP: 184.106.20.99

continent: NA, country: United States (USA), city: San Antonio

Website value

rank in the traffic statistics:

There is not enough data to estimate website value.

Basic information

website build using CSS

code weight: 160.09 KB

text per all code ratio: 40 %

title: Facebook Indie Games - Stealing Farmville's thunder one player at a time.

description: {MetaDescription}

keywords:

encoding: utf-8

language: en

Website code analysis

one word phrases repeated minimum three times

two word phrases repeated minimum three times

three word phrases repeated minimum three times

B tags

You're following this Space

Forecast from the bottom up. Most entrepreneurs do a top-down forecast: “There are 150 million cars in America. It sure seems reasonable that we can get a mere 1% of car owners to install our satellite radio systems. That's 1.5 million systems in the first year.” The bottom-up forecast goes like this: “We can open up ten installation facilities in the first year. On an average day, they can install ten systems. So our first year sales will be 10 facilities x 10 systems x 240 days = 24,000 satellite radio systems. 24,000 is a long way from the conservative 1.5 million systems in the top-down approach. Guess which number is more likely to happen.

It's much harder to get a big enough number with bottom up forecasting.

top down

bottom up

Then you are using top down forecasting. The next thing you always say after this kind of statement is "if we could only capture just 1% of that then...". 1% doesn't sound like much: anybody could do it right? No, they couldn't. Specifically, you couldn't. Not like that. Bottom up means you start with your situation and capabilities -- pretty small numbers, I bet -- and work upwards to hopefully a decent number. You might look at all the options you have to drive views to your game's web or app store page, and make assumptions about how many visits you can deliver through various channels. And then think about how likely each view is to convert: We have 2,000 followers on Twitter. Let's aim to get 50% of them to view the game, with 10% of them converting to a sale. That's 100 copies. Our web site gets 500 views per day. Let's put an ad on each page. We might get 20% of visits to click the ad, and 10% of those to buy. That's 10 copies per day. If we get featured by Apple we can expect sales of ~500 per day for a week. We'll assume we get positive reviews on 3 fairly popular review sites. Let's assume 10,000 people read those reviews, and 1% of them go ahead and buy. That's 100 more copies. As you can see, not happy numbers.

even if I could see from afar that it would be fun to get involved

even if the tendency and desire for violence is just as strong.

U tags

I tags

Guy Kawasaki states as one of his 11 laws of bootstrapping: Forecast from the bottom up. Most entrepreneurs do a top-down forecast: “There are 150 million cars in America. It sure seems reasonable that we can get a mere 1% of car owners to install our satellite radio systems. That's 1.5 million systems in the first year.” The bottom-up forecast goes like this: “We can open up ten installation facilities in the first year. On an average day, they can install ten systems. So our first year sales will be 10 facilities x 10 systems x 240 days = 24,000 satellite radio systems. 24,000 is a long way from the conservative 1.5 million systems in the top-down approach. Guess which number is more likely to happen. It's much harder to get a big enough number with bottom up forecasting. You soon find that you need to take action and make changes to drive the numbers up... actions that you wouldn't have bothered with if you'd used a top down approach. How does this apply to game studios? In a top down model you start with the whole market -- a very big number -- and work down from there. In a bottom up model you start with yourself, and work up. If your forecasts start out using assumptions or data like: There are over 200,000,000 iOS devices in existence. The top Facebook games attract up to 100,000,000 players. Minecraft has made more money than Dr Evil would dare ask for Then you are using top down forecasting. The next thing you always say after this kind of statement is "if we could only capture just 1% of that then..."

I would have had no clue what to do

encourage me to be violent

images

headers

H1

Facebook Indie Games

H2

Search

Top Down vs. Bottom Up Forecasting (Bootstrapping a Game Studio)

Good Game, Bad Cop: how HECTOR: Badge of Carnage made a killing

"Actually, I'm a Game Designer"

Stick Run: First True Indy Facebook Hit?

How to blame games for riots

Check Out Money Grubbing Whale Exploiter @NicholasLovell's Free2Play Slideshow

Opinion: The Worst Thing Nintendo Could Do is Sell Games on the iOS App Store.

Freemium Spending: 68% Consumables, 30% Durables, 2% Personalization

Franchises Come to Facebook: Sims and Smurfs are Fastest-Growing Facebook Games

Wooga: Social gamers spend on shortcuts, not decoration

H3

Search

Top Down vs. Bottom Up Forecasting (Bootstrapping a Game Studio)

Good Game, Bad Cop: how HECTOR: Badge of Carnage made a killing

"Actually, I'm a Game Designer"

Stick Run: First True Indy Facebook Hit?

How to blame games for riots

Check Out Money Grubbing Whale Exploiter @NicholasLovell's Free2Play Slideshow

Opinion: The Worst Thing Nintendo Could Do is Sell Games on the iOS App Store.

Freemium Spending: 68% Consumables, 30% Durables, 2% Personalization

Franchises Come to Facebook: Sims and Smurfs are Fastest-Growing Facebook Games

Wooga: Social gamers spend on shortcuts, not decoration

H4

Tags

Get Updates

Contributors

H5

H6

internal links

external links