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Weekend links on bank bailouts, credit downgrades and other economic concerns

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but it all depends on today's trading

"It is for these reasons that my secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P 500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible.

"Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook

China Loans Tanzania $1 Billion for Natural Gas Pipeline

Turkey and Russia Spar Over Natgas Prices

"There are no double-digit investment returns anywhere in sight for owners of financial assets. Bonds, stocks and real estate are in fact overvalued because of near zero percent interest rates and a developed world growth rate closer to 0 than the 3 – 4% historical norms. There is only a New Normal economy at best and a global recession at worst to look forward to in future years."

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"The Belgian federal government will pay 4 billion euros ($5.4 billion) for the division and guarantee 60 percent of a so-called bad bank to be set up for Dexia’s troubled assets, Finance Minister Didier Reynders said at a press conference today in Brussels." (continue reading)

"The rating actions include a one-notch downgrade of Lloyds TSB Bank plc (to A1 from Aa3), Santander UK plc (to A1 from Aa3), Co-Operative Bank plc (to A3 from A2), a two-notch downgrade of RBS plc (to A2 from Aa3) and Nationwide Building Society (to A2 from Aa3); and downgrades of one to five notches of 7 smaller building societies."

Source: SusanAstray on Flickr

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30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average - St. Louis Fed

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"Typically, when markets have three up-closes and do move that quickly, that's a sign of a termination of a short term move. And instead of looking forward and expecting the market to move higher, the market could have a very sharp decline. So we're looking closely at tomorrow and Friday morning"

"What typically happens if you see three up-closes off a low, you'll see a vacuum in the market, and that vacuum will accent the decline even more than the upside."

"13 that coincided with a daily low"

"At the May 2 high, when the market doubled the move from the March 2009 low, there was a confluence of daily, monthly and weekly indications from our market model; they all produced what is called the sequential and combo 13s, and that told us to aggressively go short. What we've experienced yesterday with the S&P average, as well as other markets, was a 13 that coincided with a daily low. So we're really going against the trend right now."

On 10/4/2011, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, explained why the economy, new home construction and job growth are weak, how the Fed is reacting, and also the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. He said,"recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead."

Economic Outlook and Recent Monetary Policy Actions

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"It is for these reasons that my secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P 500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible.

For the valuation-focused, assume S&P 500 EPS in 2012 of $90/$100, and P/Es in the 8 to 9 area – I see this kind of P/E as the new norm in the kind of world we are in." (more)

"Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Dexia SA, Belgium’s biggest bank, plans to pool its troubled assets into a “bad bank” with Belgian and French government guarantees to protect depositors and its municipal-lending business."

"Dexia SA, BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA are resisting pressure from regulators to accept more losses on their holdings of Greek government debt amid criticism they haven’t written down the bonds sufficiently."

"Review affects A3 long-term ratings, D BFSRs and Prime-1 short-term ratings

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"sovereign balance sheets resemble an overweight diabetic on the verge of a heart attack. Still, if global policymakers could focus on structural as opposed to cyclical financial solutions, New Normal growth as opposed to recession might be possible."

"almost all remedies proposed by global authorities to date have approached the problem from the standpoint of favoring capital as opposed to labor. If the banks could just be stabilized, if the “markets” could just be elevated back in the direction of peak 401(k) levels, if interest rates could just be lower so that borrowers would inevitably take the bait, then labor – job creation – would inevitably follow. It has not."

"Long-term profits cannot ultimately grow unless they are partnered with near equal benefits for labor. "

"There are no double-digit investment returns anywhere in sight for owners of financial assets. Bonds, stocks and real estate are in fact overvalued because of near zero percent interest rates and a developed world growth rate closer to 0 than the 3 – 4% historical norms. There is only a New Normal economy at best and a global recession at worst to look forward to in future years."

MS and BAC Since 2008 - Source: FreeStockCharts.com

MS and BAC Intraday - Source: FreeStockCharts.com

Market Snapshot: Financials Flop, Credit Collapses, Market Closes At 2011 Lows

Barclays, BofA Said to Consider Selling Stakes in Archstone

Morgan Stanley Swaps Risk May Be Misread, Wells Fargo Says

MS CDS Soars As Cramer Says "Morgan Stanley Is Fine"

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Credit Risk Soars

Banks Crushed Again in Stock, Credit Markets

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China’s Petrochemical Corp. Invests in Canada, Buys Daylight Energy for $2.1B - Guest Post
1:28 PM
View Comments
Canadian Energy
China
China Petrochemical Corp
Daylight Energy
Energy
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Oilprice.com
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S&P Downgrades Spain; Fitch Downgrades UBS and Places Banks on Negative Watch
6:54 PM
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China 5Y CDS Breakout Predicted FXI Breakdown, Sovereign CDS Info (Charts)
broke out to early 2009 levels
two year sideways channel
5:13 PM
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CDS Spreads
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ECRI's Achuthan Explains New US Recession, Contagion Among Leading Indicators
9:57 PM
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Links: Euro, UK Bank, Sovereign Downgrades, Dexia, Proton, Paulson Advantage, ECRI
7:55 PM
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Armenia's Aging Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant Alarms Caucasian Neighbors - Guest Post
3:12 AM
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Gary Shilling: S&P Hits 800, 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield Retests 2.5% (Video, 9/28/2011)
2:19 AM
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Two Ways To Gain Exposure To Financials With Less Risk - Guest Post
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30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Hits Record Low, 3.94% (Freddie Mac)
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Tom DeMark: S&P 500 Generated A Daily 13 Signal On Tuesday (Video)
February
4:21 AM
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Bernanke's U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy Testimony (With Video, 10/4/2011)
3:47 AM
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RIP Steve Jobs, Watch His 2005 Stanford Commencement Speech
few years ago
10:32 PM
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Bob Janjuah: Single Digit P/E Drives S&P to 700-900 in 2012
8:39 AM
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Moody's Downgrades Italy's Government Bond Rating to A2 With Negative Outlook
June 17, 2011
4:04 PM
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Belgium's Dexia Bank (DEXB) Down 22% on Sovereign Debt Holdings and Derivatives
1:36 PM
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China Loans Tanzania $1 Billion for Natural Gas Pipeline
12:57 PM
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Turkey and Russia Spar Over Natgas Prices - Guest Post
12:42 PM
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Bill Gross: Bonds, Stocks, Real Estate Overvalued Due to 0% Rates, Sees Recession Risk
1:53 AM
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ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) Hit 4 Year Low on 9/28/2011 (All Securities)
11:20 PM
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BAC, MS Double Dipping to Financial Crisis Levels (Charts)
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5:00 PM
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Russia Claims New Arctic Hydrocarbon Finds Effectively Double Nations Reserves - Guest Post
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Nice to See CDS Quotes (Credit Default Swaps) On Bloomberg.com
Tom DeMark: S&P 500 Generated A Daily 13 Signal On Tuesday (Video)
Two Ways To Gain Exposure To Financials With Less Risk - Guest Post
ECRI's Achuthan Explains New US Recession, Contagion Among Leading Indicators
European Bank Credit Default Swaps (RBS CDS Spread) Make New Highs Even After Bailouts!
Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland Spreads to German Bunds (Quotes)
China 5Y CDS Breakout Predicted FXI Breakdown, Sovereign CDS Info (Charts)
Felix Zulauf Sees S&P Bottoming at 500 (Book Value), Bullish On Gold (Price/Book Ratio Chart)
Gary Shilling: S&P Hits 800, 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield Retests 2.5% (Video, 9/28/2011)
S&P Downgrades Spain; Fitch Downgrades UBS and Places Banks on Negative Watch
2011
10/9/11 - 10/16/11
China’s Petrochemical Corp. Invests in Canada, Buy...
S&P Downgrades Spain; Fitch Downgrades UBS and Pla...
China 5Y CDS Breakout Predicted FXI Breakdown, Sov...
ECRI's Achuthan Explains New US Recession, Contagi...
Links: Euro, UK Bank, Sovereign Downgrades, Dexia,...
10/2/11 - 10/9/11
Armenia's Aging Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant Alarm...
Gary Shilling: S&P Hits 800, 30-Year Treasury Bond...
Two Ways To Gain Exposure To Financials With Less ...
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Hits Record Low, 3.94%...
Tom DeMark: S&P 500 Generated A Daily 13 Signal On...
Bernanke's U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy ...
RIP Steve Jobs, Watch His 2005 Stanford Commenceme...
Bob Janjuah: Single Digit P/E Drives S&P to 700-90...
Moody's Downgrades Italy's Government Bond Rating ...
Belgium's Dexia Bank (DEXB) Down 22% on Sovereign ...
China Loans Tanzania $1 Billion for Natural Gas Pi...
Turkey and Russia Spar Over Natgas Prices - Guest ...
Bill Gross: Bonds, Stocks, Real Estate Overvalued ...
ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) Hit 4 Year Low on 9/28/...
BAC, MS Double Dipping to Financial Crisis Levels ...
Russia Claims New Arctic Hydrocarbon Finds Effecti...
Overnight AA Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Rate Ch...
9/25/11 - 10/2/11
Links: Albert Edwards, Soros, Gundlach, Morgan Sta...
Watch Occupy Wall Street Protests Live, 700 Protes...
Will The S&P Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio Oversho...
China's Rare Earths Monopoly - Peril or Opportunit...
Yale's Robert Shiller Is Worried Stocks Could Be I...
China, Japan Minuet Around the Issue of Rare Earth...
UBS, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock on the S&P 500 (Lin...
Trader Predicts Euro, Stock Markets Will Crash; Sa...
Soros: U.S. Already In Double Dip Recession, Two o...
9/18/11 - 9/25/11
Financial Injections for 9/23/2011
Ray Dalio On Diversified Uncorrelated Bets and How...
E-Mini S&P Future Is Down 2.83% at 1123, New Lows ...
Jim Chanos Is Still Short Chinese Banks, Property ...
Peter Schiff's Testimony Before Congressional Comm...
After FOMC Statement, Stocks Fall, Treasury Bonds ...
Moody's Downgrades Bank of America and Wells Fargo...
EUR/USD Technicals, Barclays Sees 1.33 In One Mont...
Links: IMF Projections, Hugh Hendry, Fitch on Gree...
S&P Downgrades Italy; Euro, S&P Futures Initially ...
Google Wallet Demo Video and Review, Looks Interes...
Moody's: Outlooks For U.S. States, Local Governmen...
Fairholme Can Now Own 50% of St. Joe Co. (SEC Fili...
Unauthorized Trading in S&P 500, DAX, EuroStoxx In...
9/11/11 - 9/18/11
Bob Prechter Explains 'Triple Top' Forming in U.S....
Momentum Analysis Using MACD By Elliott Wave Inter...
BIS: $601 Trillion OTC Derivatives Are Outstanding...
Trader Loses UBS $2 Billion On Unauthorized Trades...
World Bank President Robert Zoellick's Speech, CNB...
9/4/11 - 9/11/11
8/28/11 - 9/4/11
8/21/11 - 8/28/11
8/14/11 - 8/21/11
8/7/11 - 8/14/11
7/31/11 - 8/7/11
7/24/11 - 7/31/11
7/17/11 - 7/24/11
7/10/11 - 7/17/11
7/3/11 - 7/10/11
6/26/11 - 7/3/11
6/19/11 - 6/26/11
6/12/11 - 6/19/11
6/5/11 - 6/12/11
5/29/11 - 6/5/11
5/22/11 - 5/29/11
5/15/11 - 5/22/11
5/8/11 - 5/15/11
5/1/11 - 5/8/11
4/24/11 - 5/1/11
4/17/11 - 4/24/11
4/10/11 - 4/17/11
4/3/11 - 4/10/11
3/27/11 - 4/3/11
3/20/11 - 3/27/11
3/13/11 - 3/20/11
3/6/11 - 3/13/11
2/27/11 - 3/6/11
2/20/11 - 2/27/11
2/13/11 - 2/20/11
2/6/11 - 2/13/11
1/30/11 - 2/6/11
1/23/11 - 1/30/11
1/16/11 - 1/23/11
1/9/11 - 1/16/11
1/2/11 - 1/9/11
2010
12/26/10 - 1/2/11
12/19/10 - 12/26/10
12/12/10 - 12/19/10
12/5/10 - 12/12/10
11/28/10 - 12/5/10
11/21/10 - 11/28/10
11/14/10 - 11/21/10
11/7/10 - 11/14/10
10/31/10 - 11/7/10
10/24/10 - 10/31/10
10/17/10 - 10/24/10
10/10/10 - 10/17/10
10/3/10 - 10/10/10
9/26/10 - 10/3/10
9/19/10 - 9/26/10
9/12/10 - 9/19/10
9/5/10 - 9/12/10
8/29/10 - 9/5/10
8/22/10 - 8/29/10
8/15/10 - 8/22/10
8/8/10 - 8/15/10
8/1/10 - 8/8/10
7/25/10 - 8/1/10
7/18/10 - 7/25/10
7/11/10 - 7/18/10
7/4/10 - 7/11/10
6/27/10 - 7/4/10
6/20/10 - 6/27/10
6/13/10 - 6/20/10
6/6/10 - 6/13/10
5/30/10 - 6/6/10
5/23/10 - 5/30/10
5/16/10 - 5/23/10
5/9/10 - 5/16/10
5/2/10 - 5/9/10
4/25/10 - 5/2/10
4/18/10 - 4/25/10
4/11/10 - 4/18/10
4/4/10 - 4/11/10
3/28/10 - 4/4/10
3/21/10 - 3/28/10
3/14/10 - 3/21/10
3/7/10 - 3/14/10
2/28/10 - 3/7/10
2/21/10 - 2/28/10
2/14/10 - 2/21/10
2/7/10 - 2/14/10
1/31/10 - 2/7/10
1/24/10 - 1/31/10
1/17/10 - 1/24/10
1/10/10 - 1/17/10
1/3/10 - 1/10/10
2009
12/27/09 - 1/3/10
12/20/09 - 12/27/09
12/13/09 - 12/20/09
12/6/09 - 12/13/09
11/29/09 - 12/6/09
11/22/09 - 11/29/09
11/15/09 - 11/22/09
11/8/09 - 11/15/09
11/1/09 - 11/8/09
10/25/09 - 11/1/09
10/18/09 - 10/25/09
10/11/09 - 10/18/09
10/4/09 - 10/11/09
9/27/09 - 10/4/09
9/20/09 - 9/27/09
9/13/09 - 9/20/09
9/6/09 - 9/13/09
8/30/09 - 9/6/09
8/23/09 - 8/30/09
8/16/09 - 8/23/09
8/9/09 - 8/16/09
8/2/09 - 8/9/09
7/26/09 - 8/2/09
7/19/09 - 7/26/09
7/12/09 - 7/19/09
7/5/09 - 7/12/09
6/28/09 - 7/5/09
6/21/09 - 6/28/09
6/14/09 - 6/21/09
6/7/09 - 6/14/09
5/31/09 - 6/7/09
5/24/09 - 5/31/09
5/17/09 - 5/24/09
5/10/09 - 5/17/09
5/3/09 - 5/10/09
4/26/09 - 5/3/09
4/19/09 - 4/26/09
4/12/09 - 4/19/09
4/5/09 - 4/12/09
3/29/09 - 4/5/09
3/22/09 - 3/29/09
3/15/09 - 3/22/09
3/8/09 - 3/15/09
3/1/09 - 3/8/09
2/22/09 - 3/1/09
2/15/09 - 2/22/09
2/8/09 - 2/15/09
2/1/09 - 2/8/09
1/25/09 - 2/1/09
1/18/09 - 1/25/09
1/11/09 - 1/18/09
1/4/09 - 1/11/09
2008
12/28/08 - 1/4/09
12/21/08 - 12/28/08
12/14/08 - 12/21/08
12/7/08 - 12/14/08
11/30/08 - 12/7/08
11/23/08 - 11/30/08
11/16/08 - 11/23/08
11/9/08 - 11/16/08
11/2/08 - 11/9/08
10/26/08 - 11/2/08
10/19/08 - 10/26/08
10/12/08 - 10/19/08
10/5/08 - 10/12/08
9/28/08 - 10/5/08
9/21/08 - 9/28/08
9/14/08 - 9/21/08
9/7/08 - 9/14/08
8/31/08 - 9/7/08
8/24/08 - 8/31/08
8/17/08 - 8/24/08
8/10/08 - 8/17/08
8/3/08 - 8/10/08
7/20/08 - 7/27/08
7/13/08 - 7/20/08
7/6/08 - 7/13/08
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