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Basic information

website build using CSS

code weight: 515.09 KB

text per all code ratio: 6 %

title: ALFA O BETA?

description:

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encoding: UTF-8

language: en

Website code analysis

one word phrases repeated minimum three times

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di5
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two word phrases repeated minimum three times

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B tags

strategia Forza Relativa

top2

top3

top2 

top3 

tendenza di medio periodo positiva

U tags

da inizio 2009 ad oggi ha reso il 22.7%, con un massimo drawdown inferiore al 7%

I tags

Secondo il New York Times 

... most trades that Wall Street firms now make with their own money — betting on an individual stock or a basket of shares, for example, or trading complex derivatives and swaps — would be prohibited. The rules, part of the Dodd-Frank law, are intended to limit the ability of banks that have government guarantees and Federal Reserve borrowing privileges to take outsize risks. That principle seemed fairly simple when it was proposed last year by Paul A. Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who was a sharp critic of bank trading practices leading up to the financial crisis.

The plan would broadly define proprietary trading, offer limited circumstances under which a bank could invest in a hedge or private-equity fund, and require banks to install internal controls to ensure compliance with the Volcker Rule. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is set to issue the nearly 300-page proposal on Oct. 11. Other regulators are expected to act around the same time.

trading

The draft, which was dated Sept. 30 and published by the American Banker last week, might be significantly different from what is officially released later this month by the four agencies that are working on the rules: the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The F.D.I.C. on Tuesday will be the first to release a version of the rules for a 60-day public comment.

The draft document contains hundreds of questions on which the agencies will seek comments — a sign that “suggests disagreement among agencies” on some of the details, according to lawyers at Davis Polk & Wardwell, which prepared a memo for clients last week summarizing the rules.

The most fundamental of those disagreements is likely to be where the line should be drawn between bona fide market-making activity, where a bank’s traders offer to buy and sell a security to meet the trading desires of customers, and short-term trading with the bank acting as a principal in transactions solely for its own benefit. (...)

“If the market-making definition is too narrow, that kind of activity will be curtailed,” Mr. Snook, of the securities industry group, said. “That will cause the cost of financing to go up, restrict the ability of companies to get access to capital and therefore to hire and expand.”

Nr. Naylor of Public Citizen says there should be further limits on market-making activity, especially on “the sort of thinly traded, esoteric instruments for which there is not natural demand” — like some of the collateralized debt obligations and other derivatives whose collapse contributed to the financial crisis.

Moody’s said on Monday that if the draft that surfaced last week was not significantly changed before it became final, it would probably “diminish the flexibility and profitability of banks’ valuable market-making operations and place them at a competitive disadvantage to firms not constrained by the rule.” (...)

Still others note that the proposed rules call for a significant increase in the level of internal compliance and oversight at banks, something that will discourage the casino culture that has long pervaded the proprietary trading operations of large banks. Large firms could be required to provide to regulators as many as 22 separate metrics or gauges of investment activity each month to prove that they are playing by the rules.

non equipesato

Dexia is leveraged by a factor of 60-1 (for comparison, Lehman Brothers was only 30-1) and because it’s already

35-percent owned by the state, this is a bank that is going to be suffering far greater losses than normal because it’s extraordinarily damaged.

intraday

Le obbligazioni trentennali dell'eurozona hanno anche questa settimana registrato il risultato peggiore con un calo dell'1%. Sui quotidiani finanziari si dibatte se le azioni siano a buon mercato oppure no, con una particolare attenzione per i titoli finanziari. Negli ultimi giorni un po' di paura se n'è andata (per ora...) come testimonia anche il calo dei CDS sul debito di Italia e Spagna e dello Spread BTp-Bund sceso a poco più di 350 punti base. Chissà se la discesa continuerà dopo il nuovo downgrade

  The stress tests have been criticized for failing to examine the impact of what appears to be the biggest threat to the bloc's banking system—a major default by Greece—possibly followed by the defaults of other nations in the troubled euro-zone periphery. Dexia comfortably passed the summer's stress tests for capital—its ability to absorb losses. The tests also examined bank liquidity—the ability to access ready cash to deal with the kind of strains that brought Dexia down—but the liquidity results weren't disclosed. In a report Friday, Moody's said European banks needed to reduce their reliance on wholesale funding. Banks in the euro area depend on average for almost half of their funding from often-skittish wholesale markets, whereas U.S. banks on average have close to 70% funding provided by more stable retail depositors.

"Until this problem is corrected, 'fixing' European banks is merely applying band-aids," the report said.

hard landing

"The market can only focus on one thing at a time," says well-known value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates.

"That's why nobody is talking about China or Japan because we are focused on Europe today," says Katsenelson. "The spotlight will be there when things get worse."

Katsenelson was an early adopter of China skepticism and has remained bearish on the country for more than a year. Today, the fact that China is slowing and struggling with inflation and over-capacity is a given. The debate is over how much the world's second largest economy will slow.

"The argument between hard landing and soft landing is going to be won by hard landing," Katsenelson says in the attached clip, pointing to the collapse in copper prices as "just the beginning."

“Technology alone is not enough,” said Mr Jobs at the end of his speech introducing the iPad 2, in March 2011. “It’s technology married with liberal arts, married with humanities, that yields the results that make our hearts sing.” It was an unusual statement for the head of a technology firm, but it was vintage Steve Jobs.

Institutional bondholders such as pension funds and insurers have refused to buy unsecured European bank debt in any meaningful quantities since early summer, and balk entirely at durations longer than two years. “There are a lot of banks that would be willing to give away assets if they could, just so they don’t have to fund them,” says one investment banker. Bank X is trimming euro assets, accelerating plans to cut the size of its balance-sheet. Other lenders are doing the same. That risks driving down asset prices, forcing lots of banks to mark down equivalent assets and erode capital. Deleveraging also means a reduction in lending activity.

American banks are not as directly exposed to the debt crisis as European lenders, many of which are stuffed to the gills with the bonds of their own governments. But uncertainties about where exactly the exposures they have lie prompted some wild movements this week in US bank shares and in the price of credit-default swaps (CDS), a type of insurance against default. Early on October 4th CDS spreads on Morgan Stanley bonds reached a three-year high. Spreads tightened later in the week, but the price of taking out insurance contracts on American banks is heading back towards territory last seen in 2009 (see chart 2).

That may reflect banks’ earnings prospects more than a genuine fear of failure. “Nobody wants to be long CDS on any of the brokers going into the earnings meat-grinder for [the third quarter],” says Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics, who sees “no risk of failure” for Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs. A difficult economic climate means non-performing loans will probably rise. And the wave of attacks on the banks, whether through lawsuits or legislation, is unrelenting.(...)

 “If Armageddon doesn’t happen, the stocks are cheap. It’s a big if.”

images

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Another Traumatic Month for Paulson:

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mercoledì 12 ottobre 2011

martedì 11 ottobre 2011

lunedì 10 ottobre 2011

domenica 9 ottobre 2011

sabato 8 ottobre 2011

venerdì 7 ottobre 2011

giovedì 6 ottobre 2011

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mercoledì 12 ottobre 2011

martedì 11 ottobre 2011

lunedì 10 ottobre 2011

domenica 9 ottobre 2011

sabato 8 ottobre 2011

venerdì 7 ottobre 2011

giovedì 6 ottobre 2011

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La regola di Volker in arrivo?
05:42
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banche
crisi finanziaria e riforme
-47% Ouch!
14:38
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hedge funds
La strategia Forza Relativa della selezione titoli quantitativa del Sole 24 Ore
iniziata qui
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06:46
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forza relativa
momento
selezione quantitativa di portafoglio
Due video su Dexia e la Grecia
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banche
Grecia
Aggiornamento al 7 ottobre 2011
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qui
15:14
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asset allocation
L'atterraggio duro della Cina e la psicanalista di Ben Bernanke
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Cina
Fed
La scomparsa di un tecnologo umanista e la crisi delle banche
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banche
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Un panorama del sistema creditizio europeo

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Secondo il New York Times
che dedica un approfondimento all'argomento
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American Banker
collateralized debt obligations
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"Re Mida della Finanza"
Dealbook (NYT) di ieri
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Portfolio: Dexia Bank's Collapse and the European Financial Crisis
http://www.stratfor.com/content/portfolio-preparing-greeces-failure
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dopo il nuovo downgrade da parte di Fitch venerdì sera
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La crisi del debito dei PIIGS sta mettendo a dura prova la fiducia nel sistema bancario
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